can we ensure water security in the future?

Can we ensure water security in the future  or is it simply not possible?

Quick little run through of the major points: location does not necessarily wholly determine the availability of water, whereas the ability to pay plays a major role. Like supply, demand varies from place to place, with richer groups often tending to consume more water as well as densely populated regions- urban and industrial locations.  In addition to human factors affecting supply and demand climate change will also increase the pressure on the supply side of water in certain regions and global warming will increase the  demand side pressure due to increased demands in domestic, irrigation, industrial and ecological use(Jakerskog, 2014). 

These two conditions show no sign of abating so it's no wonder various academia and models predict the issue of water scarcity increasing over the years.

 However in the article ' facing the freshwater crisis' Rogers argues that the existing technologies and policy tools are good enough to ensure long term security. I shall discuss the most effective techniques and policy tools to ensure water security in the future (Rogers, 2008):

Techniques and tools to reduce Demand

1) Given the importance of economics and income in water matters, it is clear that reasonable pricing policies that promote greater conservation by domestic and industrial users should be one of the top priorities adopted to conserving freshwater. As he notes which I very much agree with, if a commodity is too cheap no one thinks twice about waste. Another major consequences of pricing water too low is that insufficient funds are generated for future development and preventive upkeep. Hence higher prices may:

• spur the adoption of measures such as the systematic reuse of used water (so-called grey water) for nonpotable applications.

•  encourage water agencies to build recycling and reclamation systems.

• convince municipalities and others to reduce water losses by improving maintenance of water-delivery systems.

2) Considering the fact irrigated agriculture is by far the largest consumer of water, this places  conserving irrigated flows in the bulls eye to conserving the most freshwater. According to the IWMI study, to meet world food requirements in 2050  without any technological improvements to irrigated agriculture methods, farmers will need a rise in irrigated water supplies from 2,700 to 4,000 km3. Given such rising demands it is unlikely that water managers can significantly lower the quantity of water now dedicated to irrigated agriculture. Nevertheless such improvements can help hold any increases to reasonable levels:

•  stopping leaks in the water-delivery infrastructure 

•  implementing low-loss storage of water like underground storage -  the most common use to transfer water from high supply season to the high demand season is to hold surface water behind dams but the exposure evaporates much of this supply. If engineers were to find large subsurface reservoirs that can be recharged readily by surface supplies and that can easily return their contents aboveground when needed for irrigation like in Arizona, California and elsewhere this would solve the problem. 

• extensive use of  drip-irrigation systems, which minimizes consumption by allowing water to seep in slowly either from the soil surface or directly into the root zone( provided demonstration of this below). 

                                               layout of drip irrigation system 

• Investments in new crop varieties that can tolerate low water levels and drought.

And just let me add here there have been vast improvements in these innovations as the world water week in September announced 17 nominees for securing food using less water- check the prize winners here: (USAID, 2014). 

3) Keeping the demand for irrigation water in arid and semiarid areas down while still meeting the world's future food requirements can be supported by supplying “virtual water” to those places. Virtual water means agricultural ( and other ) products that have been produced with large amounts of water not the real water itself. The magnitude of annual global trade in virtual water exceeds 800 billion m³ of water a year; the equivalent of 10 Nile Rivers. 

                                                    virtual water trade in the world 
However in spite of these virtual water transfers, the populations of growing cities need real, flowing water to drink, as well as for hygiene and sanitation. Therefore removal of bulk water is a solution for this hence why it is a common practice in many parts of the world. This refers to the removal of huge volumes of water by man made versions not necessarily form one country to another but from one area to another. However in recent years because of increasing water scarcity and improvements in water transfer technology plans are being made to transfer water from water rich countries to water poor countries(Ojendal, 2014). Personally I think this should be the last point of call considering the many implications it entails: the most known detrimental effect being the Aral Sea example and recently I'v read( which I shall attach the newspaper article here because I'm so nice ;)) about the consequences of Chinas massive water diversion project(Kaiman,2014). We would not want to see these detrimental effects on a international scale, as regional scale consequences demonstrates its bad enough.

                                     An image you may have seen many times: the Aral sea transformation 

Increasing Supply

1)Beyond constraining demand for freshwater, the opposite approach, increasing its supply, will be a critical component of the solution to water shortages. Desalination tools are poised as the most obvious way to increase our supply considering 97% of our water is salty. A recent, substantial reduction in the costs for the most energy-efficient desalination technology—membrane reverse-osmosis systems—means that many coastal cities can now secure new sources of potable water. 

However despite the improvements in energy efficiency the applicability of reverse osmosis is to some degree limited by the fact that the technology is still energy-intensive, so the availability of affordable power is important to significantly expanding its application.

2) As for trying to remedy the effects of climate change on our water resource supply the only hope we have is to try and reduce global warming by reducing our greenhouse gases by all the many ways we all know but primarily entails by being more energy efficient. 

3) Before summing up I will like to add on a further suggestion which does not appear to be suggested in the fight for water security : reducing population growth. I believe if this was tackled by policies and education more seriously we would save ourselves a lot of extra effort and money as well as making the effects of climate change less acute. 

                                       I'm not quite suggesting this but you get my flow

The fight to stave off water shortage fourth and foremost  requires spending money and a
lot of it may I add. Analysts at Booz Allen Hamilton have estimated that to provide water
needed for all uses through 2030, the world will need to invest as much as $1 trillion a
year on applying existing technologies for conserving water, maintaining and replacing infrastructure, and constructing sanitation systems. Although this may appear as a daunting figure, it is only about 1.28%( I calculated this for 2014) of todays annual global gross domestic product, a seemingly achievable expenditure. 

There is, however, at least one cause for optimism: the most populous countries with the largest water infrastructure needs—India and China—are precisely those that are experiencing rapid economic growth. The part of the globe that is most likely to continue suffering from inadequate water access—Africa and its one billion inhabitants—spends the least on water infrastructure and cannot afford to spend much; it is crucial, therefore, that wealthier nations provide more funds to assist the effort.

So going back to answering my initial question: I believe the chance of a global water crisis maybe not completely avoided but surely can be reduced to a considerable amount if the the international community puts its collective mind to the challenge. The existing techniques I have discussed I believe are sufficient to do so but we just need to accelerate the adoption of these to conserve and enhance the water supply. 

significance of development on water scarcity

As I promised this blog will be on the significance of development status on the the issue of water scarcity. Now the reference I shall use in this blog came to me by accident, let me explain. For this course on global environmental change we have a reading list. Now me being a keen bean decided to read the readings back in September. However only a week ago I realised that that all the many readings I had done were from last years reading list. This was very annoying at the time because I had to start all over again, but seeing as this reference has been useful, I am less annoyed. So the reference I am using is here:Vorosmarty, 2010 

The question I shall aim to target in this blog is:

Are poor and rich countries or in other words termed developed or developing countries equally at risk of water scarcity?

Well the verdict from this article is that highly developed regions with high incident threat (for example, United States, Western Europe) often show much lower adjusted threat indices as a result of massive investments in water infrastructure. Now when I mean massive I mean the total value is in the trillions of US dollars, so Im not exaggerating. These 'massive'  investments by  high-income countries benefits 850 million people by lowering their exposure to high incident threat by 95%. As we move to upper middle income countries the  corresponding values are 140 million people and 23%. Whereas developing countries vulnerability remains high due to minimal investment, with 3.4 billion people in these areas ( for example most of Africa, large areas in central Asia and countries including China, India , Peru  or Bolivia) showing the highest adjusted threat category. So what we see is that incident human water security threat is a rising but saturating function of per capita GDP. On the other hand adjusted human water security declines sharply in affluent countries in response to technological investments: the latter closely

resembles the environmental Kuznet curve as shown below.

                                               

This Kuznetsk curve describes rising ambient stressors loads during early to middle stages of economic growth followed by reduced loading through environmental controls established as developments continues. 

So the long and short of my answer is: more developed countries are the most threatened as seen by the table below ( as a result of high development and high population using more water) however technological investments mean they can offset high stressor levels whilst not necessarily remedying their underlying causes- hence shifting them from most to least threatened. Whereas a lack of water infrastructure in less wealthy nations mean they remain vulnerable.  

To add salt to a wound this lack of water infrastructure creates dire economic impacts in developing countries. For example Ethiopia  has 150 times less reservoir storage per capita than North America 32 and its climate and hydrological variability takes a 38% toll on gross domestic product (GDP).Therefore without major policy and financial commitments, these stark contrasts in human water security will continue to separate rich from poor. 

water stress in Seychelles

When I thought of looking at case studies I was very unsure where to start, no surprise really considering the amount of countries to chose from. Therefore instead I decided to chose my destination according to places that have a relevant status in accordance to freshwater. Now looking at these three places I have chosen: Brazil, Sub Saharan Africa and Australia, I've just realised by accident I have chosen three areas with three different development statuses.

Sub Saharan Africa being a developing region, Australia as developed and Brazil as an emerging economy. Even before realising this I was already thinking of doing my last case study blog on my very own Seychelles, and quite wonderfully this fits in perfectly as adds in a new status :  a small developing island state (SID): a middle income country. This is probably not that much of a big deal but seeing as I am studying geography everything kind of links back to the development status, and I might also relate back to this as well in another blog. 

But first lets have a look at the freshwater case in the Seychelles: 

                                          I'm not showing off or anything :D

Water supply in Seychelles is primarily from river sources, combined with groundwater extraction and desalination plants in some locations. Water distribution on the three main islands: Mahe, Praline and La Digue is extensive, serving more than 87% of the population with treated water supply. Despite these efforts, water restriction are common on the three main islands. The technical executive and project director of dams, hydropower and undergrounds works, Gibbs, noted: the islands are experiencing water shortages, with only 60% of the current demand being met on average (Boralho, 2013).The water shortage crisis is worse during the dry season (June to November), with water restrictions and rationing being more frequent and consistent in recent years. Why is this? Lets first take a look at the climate change. 

Climate change: 

Seychelles like many other small island states, has been affected by climate change which includes a shift in weather patterns of rainy and dry seasons. There is strong evidence that under most climate change scenarios, water resources in small islands are likely to be seriously compromised (SNCCS, 2009). Results from four global circulation models, indicate that climate change is expected to increase the severity of water shortages on Mahé, Praslin and La Digue because of the following factors : 

• decreases in rainfall during the dry southeast monsoon which will reduce stream flow, groundwater recharge and therefore water supply

• increases in surface air temperatures which will increase rates of evapotranspiration and consequently reduce stream flow, ground water recharge and further exacerbate the water supply problem

• and increases in rainfall intensity which will result in greater surface runoff and reduced water capture in existing storage facilities. 

Data from Seychelles national climate change strategy shows that annual rainfall anomaly trends on Mahe for the period 1972- 2006 are upward by 13.7 mm a year from the average annual rainfall of 2,200 millimetre, indicating a wetter climate.  

                                     annual precipitation anomalies for Mahe : 1972 1997

However as Payet and Agricole (2006) note : a warmer and wetter climate for the Seychelles will not necessarily translate into a greater availability of water. Dry spells are likely to be longer, and precipitation events more intense. These predicted changes will affect water supply adversely because of greater variation in stream flow (SNCCS, 2009). At the moment the water supply system is highly vulnerable to meteorological conditions which are becoming increasingly variable as a result of climate change. However if there were adequate storage capacity to transfer water resources from the wet to the dry season the situation the vulnerability to climate change in Seychelles would not be as intense (UNDP, no date) which leads us onto our human factors. 

Human factors

The issue of insufficient storage facilities is constantly being raised by the general public in the Seychelles. The main reservoir that supplies water to the population on the main island of Mahe (where I live) is La Gogue dam can presently hold one million cubic metres of water. During the rainy season the dam often fills to the brim and then overflows, causing the loss of water which during the subsequent dry season is then sorely missed. Added to this  a high percentage of water – about 44% – is unaccounted for and, therefore, lost, owing to an ageing reticulation system. 

                                                         La Gogue dam 

So what we see here is humans being to blame for the water insecurity as a result of underinvestment in water infrastructure. Consequently a dam which was built in 1976 is still the major supplier to a population which has grown to  90,000 and furthermore in addition to on average 200,000 tourist arrivals a year. However physical factors has partly to blame for the lack in water storage in Seychelles. 

Physical factors: 

Because of the hilly topography of the Seychelles islands it is difficult to create sufficient storage capacity at reasonable cost.  Furthermore groundwater resources are limited as not much water is stored at the feet of the hills and the water available is often hard and contains traces of salt (Feow, no date). 

However the limited opportunities to expand storage capacity should not be a complete obstruction to the development of better storage capacity especially as continuous population growth, tourism activities and other commercial developments will result in an increase of 6% to 8% a year in the estimated demand for potable water in the Seychelles, meaning at that rate, the current water supply will soon be exceeded. 

                 Mahe projected Daily water demands, yields and shortfall in supply (revised October 2004)

  Thankfully the Seychelles government has finally decided to expand the capacity of the main water storage dam by at least 60%. The work is 'believed' ( don't know about actually happening) to start next year and construction of the project is estimated to take up to 3 years. Although building a second major dam would be more substantial to sustain water resources in the future this option for the time being has been put aside due to the cost involved. Seychelles Public Utilities corporation is also hoping to boost its desalination capacity to cope with emergency situation, linked to freak patterns (La blache, 2014).

In conclusion it is apparent to see that climate change has definitely affected the water supply in Seychelles. However the inefficiency of the provision of water as well as the decline in water service quality has no doubt been generated by the underinvestment in water supply infrastructure which has been under increased pressure from increase in population, tourism and industry. Therefore time will only see whether these new improvements will redeem the periodic water problem in Seychelles, which in my view is equally a result of climate change as it of human influence.

country with largest freshwater supply

The previous two regions I've looked at (Sub Saharan Africa and Australia) are both naturally dry regions that are experiencing water scarcity. So I thought it would be interesting for this post to look at a region in the world that is the complete opposite and, in fact, has the largest supply of freshwater in the world... take a guess?? 

Yes Brazil you guessed right. Brazil has less than 3% of the worlds populations and 12% of the worlds freshwater resources (Watts, 2014).  Nevertheless at the moment the central , south eastern region of Brazil and most dramatically in its largest and most economically important city Sau Paulo  is suffering a water crisis, which is having  devastating effects on agriculture, energy and domestic water supplies. It is very perplexing to me that the region in the world with the most freshwater reserves is still vulnerable to water scarcity so lets take a look at why this is: 

So what I have found out is the underlying factor responsible for the water crisis is the worst  drought Brazil has experienced in the last 80 years (Davies, November 2014).The drought began last austral summer ( December to February), when Sao Paulo state received about one third to half of its usual amount of rain during what should have been its wettest month. In the seven months since, rainfall has been about 40 % of normal (Plumer , October 2014). Some Brazilian scientists say the current drought is a result of a combination of global warming and deforestation. 

Despite Brazil being recently congratulated on its efforts to reduce deforestation in the past two years  deforestation all over Brazil has reached alarming proportions: 22 percent of the Amazon rainforest (an area larger than Portugal, Italy and Germany combined), 47 percent of the Cerrado in central Brazil, and 91.5 percent of the Atlantic forest that used to cover the entire length of the coastal area has now been wiped out.

                                                        forest clearance in the Amazon

The combination of global warming and deforestation, they say, is reducing the role of the Amazon rainforest as a giant “water pump,” releasing billions of litres of humidity from the trees into the air in the form of vapour which then circulate west and south, falling as rain to irrigate Brazil’s central and southern regions. In January and February of this year, when rain is usually abundant in central and southern Brazil, the flying rivers ( which is the term for the vapour clouds from the Amazon) failed to flow south, according to data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) (Maddocks et al, November 2014). 

                                                             Flying rivers animation

However in an article I read recently, Marshall ( the writer) argues that the extreme drought in Sau Paulo is not the result of deforestation. He contests this for two reasons. Firstly he argues that the deforestation is insufficiently large to account for the drought levels. Although according to Nobre - Brazils top climate scientist -the role of the Amazon rainforest in producing rain has been underestimated (Rocha , September 2014 ). In a single day, the Amazon region evaporates 20 billion tonnes of vapour − more than the 17 million tonnes of water that the Amazon River discharges each day into the Atlantic. 

Secondly Marshall argues that there is evidence which points to a natural southerly shift in the current year in the easterly winds coming ashore in Brazil from near the Amazon delta to the much drier coast of Bahia (Marshall , 2014).

However time for something which is not contestable and that is the current drought should not have brought such havoc to regions of Brazil seeing the very important fact that Brazil holds the largest freshwater reserves in the world. This could only be a fault of humans, boom boom boom. Its hindered ability to adapt was a result  of a series of interconnected water management failures across the metropolitan areas. 

As climate scientist Marcos Heil Costa told Nasa, '"It is now clear that our policies on management of water resources are unsustainable, no city in southeast Brazil seems prepared to handle a drought like this one. It is a mix of a lack of preparation for low levels of rain and a lack of environmental education in the population. Most people continue to use water as if we were in a normal year"(Plumer , October 2014). 

But I think I may have forgotten. what is my verdict : climate change or human influence. Well I definitely think climate change had a substantial part to do with the drought( as this drought would be considered extreme weather: a major feature of climate change). However to what extent deforestation also had an influence( which would then shift this to human influence in the case of my blog)  is contestable at the moment. Therefore I will conclude with this: Climate change ( and perhaps deforestation) was the catalyst in the way that it caused the drought however it was the human influence that was the predominant factor in making this a water issue, as those involved were ill equipped to handle such an event. 

driest inhabited continent.

I thought a good follow on from my previous blog would be to look at the driest inhabited continent on Earth as opposed to the region experiencing the most widespread water scarcity... take a guess!!

yes you guessed right.. Australia! There is a presumption, not by everyone of course but some people that developed countries do not experience water scarcity as such. 

Australia is proof that yes developed countries do experience water shortages, but it is perhaps their greater ability to deal with the issue that keeps the issue more under wraps in contrast to developing regions like Africa for example. Nevertheless water availability is a major issue in Australia, particularly as rainfall varies a lot seasonally, yearly and across the continent (Chhartisgarh, 2008).

The more populated temperate south of Australia is where there are the worst water scarcity problems,  whereas in the tropical north where few people live there is a relative abundance of water(Charters and William , 2006)- as we can see distribution is a reoccuring topic!

The larger population in the urban areas together with the heavy industry and water intensive agro business (Murray Darling Basin - 75% of irrigated agriculture- which has caused major water depletion here) in the south is causing irreversible damage to the frail ecosystems and contributing to this  chronic water shortages(sustainability, 2014). However it is the prevailing drought conditions  conditioned by global warming that are mostly determining this water usage as unsustainable. For the past 9 years Australia has been experiencing perhaps the worst drought of their history ( and they have had no shortages of these).

The finding published in the journal Nature, say that increases in greenhouse gases and ozone( Australia is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases per capita) in the Earth's atmosphere are responsible for suppressing rainfall in Australia (Zeng and Delworth, 2014). In addition climate change is expressing itself both magnitude and variability on the highly variable cyclic pattern of rainfall (William and Charters, 2006) it is no wonder it is expressing its worst drought. 

Climate change projections show a tendency for  decrease in winter -spring rainfall ( June - November) over the southern half of the continent and a tendency for increased summer autumn rainfall ( December - May)  in northern Australia (William and charter, 2006), which means the current situation in southern Australia is going to get even worse. 

In response to this the western Australian minister for water and forestry Mia Davies said, 

"In a drying climate we need to become less reliant on rainfall, which is why we go down the path of desalination, around waste water treatment and reuse and re- injection into our aquifers,"(Mercer, 2014). These both are already being utilised in Australia.

                             

 However the issue here is that these energy intensive ways of getting water are going to contribute to the issue of global warming even more so which in turn will create more water problems for Australia. Therefore in addition to these energy intensive ways Australia has put an increase of emphasis in water conservation and various regimes restricting the use of water(William and Charters, 2006). 

In conclusion Australia is suffering from a different water scarcity  problem to Sub Saharan African given the development difference. While Sub Saharan Africa is mainly suffering from economic scarcity the prevailing issue in Australia is physical scarcity and the dominant reason being climate change exarcebating the drought. However human transformations (especially through river regulation and irrigation) have intensified the extent of the drought. How successfully Australia responds to these current water scarcity issues will offer an important road map for others around the world. 

water scarcity in Sub Saharan Africa

Despite the progress of some countries, Sub Saharan Africa as a whole still lags behind most regions of the world when it comes to water access, management and supply. For those of you who don't know where Sub Saharan Africa is, I have so kindly provided a image of where it is. So it is basically the area that lies below the Saharan Desert. 

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), more than 40% of all people without access to safe drinking water live there, with some 300,000 people deprived of a clean water source (UNDESA, 2014). 

Despite Africa’s rainy equatorial zone, long rivers, great lakes and vast shores, water is unevenly distributed across the region. About 75% of sub-Saharan Africa’s water resources are concentrated in eight major river basins. More worryingly, climate change  have considerably reduced fresh water quantity here over the past 20 years. Even though it is the continent least responsible for climate change it is particularly vulnerable for its effects. 

The Intergovernmental Panel of climate change reports that climate change in Africa has manifested itself in more intense and longer droughts in the subtropics and tropics, while arid or semi-arid areas in northern, western, eastern, and parts of southern Africa are becoming drier and more susceptible to variability of precipitation and storms (DFID, 2009). As a result most countries in the region are under severe water stress.

BUT BUT BUT there is hope!  Although changes in climate happening 5000-5500 years ago meant aquifers were last adequately filled 5000 years ago there has recently there has been a discovery! In 2012 researchers from the British geological survey and University college London ( that's my uni !! ) for the first time ever managed  to map in detail the amount and potential yield of water  in aquifers and found that countries currently designated as  'water scarce’ have substantial groundwater reserves!!! hurrayyy 

But ( sad but this time) even though there has been found to be  sufficient groundwater to support many low yielding water supplies for drinking and community irrigation the big concern is over exploitation (McGrath, 2012) hence leading us onto our human factors. 

Human factorssss
Water exploitation is already a big issue in Sub Saharan. But its the incentives for overuse which are among the most damaging especially concerning groundwater extraction. For ground water, once the pump is installed, the policy of many countries is to only constrain removal based on the cost of electricity, and in many cases subsidise electricity costs for agricultural uses, which damages incentives to conserve such resources. Additionally, many countries within Africa set the cost of water well below cost-recovery levels, thus discouraging efficient usage and threatening sustainability (Jaglin , 2002). 

                                                                                        Land grabbing in the future has been pointed out by experts to become another major cause of  water shortage over the next coming years. These  property deals between sub-Saharan African countries and foreign companies often entail selling rights to inland water resources. As property acquired in such a manner is mostly used for extensive, water-demanding agricultural activities (that often entail deforestation), ‘land grabbing’ further jeopardises water supplies and, in countries like Ethiopia or Sudan, worsens the effects of already endemic water scarcity (Grain, 2012).

Water in Sub Saharan Africa  is not only scarce due to exploitation, bad management,  wastage and climate change but it is also of exceptionally poor quality. Due to pollution as well as unreliable supply and sanitation infrastructure, only a small percentage of what little water is available can be used for human consumption. Almost half of all Africans suffer from water-borne diseases, with cholera and infant diarrhoea the most frequently occurring sicknesses.

The water stress caused by inadequate sanitation tends to reach critical levels in regions with higher population densities. The rapid urbanisation process ( at a rate of 5% - highest in the world) currently underway in sub-Saharan Africa is therefore expected to worsen the situation. Currently 1 billion people live in urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa and, according to the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), that figure is expected to rise by 50% by 2030 (Lewis, 2014).

So to sum up water scarcity in Sub Saharan Africa has clearly suffered the effects of both climate change as well as human factors.  However in my opinion the biggest cause of this water scarcity is due to human factors, and more specifically poverty. The fact that the majority of Sub Saharan Africa suffers from economic scarcity back up this point. This poverty constrains many cities in this region from providing clean water and sanitation services and preventing the further deterioration of water quality even when opportunities- such as the newly founded groundwater reserves -exist to address these water issues.However ironically although this widespread poverty and low levels of development are impeding sub saharans Africa ability to cope with climate change and hence making it more water stressed, in the future it is is this economic development that is going to exarcerbate its water issue further! However as opposed to the current issue being mostly economic scarcity as a result of the inability to supply the water, future water stress here will  mostly be physical water stress  of not being able to meet increase in demand. 

some water scarcity statistics

OK so what have we established so far?? ok well what I hope to have established is that there is enough  freshwater on the planet for 7 billion people but its is just the distribution which is uneven added with the fact that too much of it is wasted, polluted and unsustainably managed. So freshwater scarcity is both a factor of climate change and human influence. Now for some statistical facts I'v picked up along the way so you get the feel that this is an urgent relevant topic:

• Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century

• although there is no global water scarcity as such, an increasing number of regions are chronically short of water.

• Water scarcity already affects every continent.

• Around 780 million people in 43 countries lack access to clean water that is more than 2 .5 times the population of the US.

• Another 1.6 billion people, or almost one quarter of the world's population, face economic water shortage (where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers and aquifers).UN, 2007  

• By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity( <500 cubic meters per person er year) , and two-thirds of the world's population could be living under water stressed conditions ( < 1700 cubic meters per person per year) .

• With the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world's population will be living in areas of high water stress by 2030

• In addition, water scarcity in some arid and semi-arid places will displace between 24 million and 700 million people.UNDP, 2006

Now the next blog will be focused on the part of the world which has the largest number of water stressed countries of any region. Have a guess???

   SUB SAHARAN AFRICA! 

How human activities affect freshwater scarcity

Its time for the non climatic factors affecting freshwater scarcity! There are so many human factors that affect freshwater resources. Water resources both in quantity and quality are affected by : land use change, the construction and management of reservoirs, pollutant emissions, waste water treatment, population, lifestyle, food consumption, economic policy, societies views of the value of water etc (IPPC, no date).  However I'm only going to mention three human factor which I think are the most important in influencing freshwater resources. Not only because they are the largest factors causing a change in freshwater resources but they link into all the other human factors affecting freshwater resources. 

Firstly the increasingly talked about growing  human population:

The Falkenmark indicator is the most widely used measure of water scarcities because its meanings are intuitive and it is very easy to understand as you will see below. I should have probably mentioned this water stress index from the first blog but better late than never! This stress indicator is a demonstrator that population growth will reduce the amount of available  water per person to troublesome levels: 

 However it is important to note that previous projections of human population are higher than what has been now estimated due to a decline in fertility from 2.5 to 2 resulting in a population of  9 billion by 2050. So this would mean that the future impact on freshwater is not as bad as previously thought Vorosmarty, 2000. However this may have been the case but other factors have come into play since then, which leads us onto our second factor…... higher consumption!

Globally most people are getting richer and more developed (Kenny, 2013). What do we do when we get more developed?? we consume more.. duhh just look at developed countries footprint in comparison to developing countries!  

Now seeing as everything practically everything involves using water our water use increases rapidly when we become more developed. However the major issue here is not for domestic purposes which might seem the most blatant... oooh no it is for agriculture purposes! It takes on average it takes 70 times more water to grow food  than people use directly for domestic purposes. So taking this into consideration reduced freshwater is going to have grave circumstances on food security more than anything- not a nice thought for my tummy.  

                                                         

                                                          global water scarcity 

Moving on... this increase in population together with increase in affluence creates increases in consumption and production leading us onto our third factor ….. pollution. I personally think pollution is going to be one of the most damaging factors to water scarcity because it is the only variable responsible for actually reducing the amount of freshwater globally as it creates the water to become de facto unusable. China and India are currently the major culprits in the pollution of water( no surprise since they are the bosses in production with limited water treatment at the moment) nevertheless there is projected to be an increase in organic micro pollutant everywhereGoel , 2006.This is partly a fault of climate change as I mentioned in a comment to Shafique in my last blog, because it will increase non point pollution into water resources as a result of increase runoff.  

                                            I hope this doesn't end up being the case!

So up to now I have just cleared how climatic and non climatic factors affect freshwater scarcity, so next to come :

 

how does climate change affect freshwater security?

In order for us to understand the problem of water stress it is necessary to understand the distribution of water on the planet. I already discussed this a little in my previous blog, but just a little more detailed recap provided here by the picture:

Now in this blog I will be assessing the ways in which climate change affect this very small amount of consumable freshwater... heavy stuff!

First what is climate change?? I know I might be stating the obvious but better safe than sorry. 

 When talking about the current climate change occurring in our era we tend to be referring to global warming. This global warming which has been spotted to be happening rapidly after 1950  till today has been presumed by scientists who are 90% sure that this been caused by increasing greenhouse gases created by human activities( although some may contest this) (I.P.O.C, 2007).

Now the big point to take away is that climate change affects the distribution of water on the planet!! It is THIS that affects water stress. Lets now go into the major ways it will do this... 
 One of the most pronounced effects of climate change has been melting of masses of ice. When polar ice melts it melts into the sea which goes hand in hand with seal level rise. The implications of this is that the beautiful freshwater is turned into salty water which we can no longer consume, unless that is if we want to use some expensive desalination systems on it, but that is not really a solution for many of us round the world since we aren't all arabs ( the total use of desalinated water in the near East is estimated to be 3.93km3/year with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirate and Kuwait use accounting for 77% of the region). 

Rising sea levels caused by this melting of our glaciers also tampers with the freshwater in our groundwater and estuaries by causing salt water intrusion and hence salinisation(Warner and Simons, 2009).
In the case on inland glaciers when they melt they will contribute to freshwater in rivers and lakes, but this will be a short term relief as when these glaciers have been depleted they can no longer be restored!

Another effect of  global warming, is to increase the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold. For every  0.6 Celsius rise in temperature (1 Fahrenheit) the the water holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by 4%  and there is projected to be a 0.2 Celsius increase per decade for the next two decades(IPPC, 2007). So because the air can hold more water vapour this leads to heavier and more rainfall when the carrying capacity is exceeded or the atmosphere cools. If you need a visualisation for this just look at tropical rainfalls .. they are very dramatic, unlike small showers in England.
This might sound confusing because more rainfall surely must mean more freshwater. However  although yes rainfall means more freshwater,  heavier rainfall also means more rapid movement of the water back to the oceans- hence reducing our ability to store and use it.

In a warmer climate more precipitation will occur as rain rather than snow. This is bad for freshwater security for two reasons. Firstly evaporation which is more dramatic with the increase in temperatures has a larger impact on water rather than snow therefore more drought will be common. Secondly when snow and ice collect on mountains, water is released slowly into the soil  and into groundwater as opposed to when rain falls. Therefore crucial groundwater will not be replenished. This is extremely important as around 50 % of global domestic water supply is from groundwater and humans are quickly using most of the available groundwater storage already( IPCC chapter 3).

However, we must bear in mind that climate change is not going to reduce the amount of precipitation that is falling on our earth, because this will be the same. BUT what it will do is intensify the water cycle.

                                                            intensified water cycle

In other words, the frequency of dramatic weather events will increase. So flooding will become more common in some areas and droughts more severe in others. These effects are already being seen though in a lot of places. However to see examples of this you will just have to wait for my later blogs to come.. woohooo.

One last point people may not actually consider is that climate change will not only affect supply of water but demand too. This is because as the Earths temperatures rise the amount of water required for animals and humans and plants to strive increases, hence putting more pressure on water resources.

Coming up next…. the ways in which human activities affect freshwater security!!!