my last blog :(

Well this is a very sad moment indeed! My very last blog! Well all I can say is this has been a marvellous experience. It has been the only work I have actually had a motivation to get down and do, and now Iv got to go back to all the other boring coursework styles. Oh dear! Well can't make this all about me, this blog too does have to have a intellectual edge to it even though its my last one. However I shall add nothing new to frizzasellll your brains. 

This shall simply be a summary of all the major points. 

Ok well the world water situation is undergoing significant changes and it looks like it is going to continue to do so. There are large geographical differences in water stress as well as different causes as can be seen through my four little case studies. 

• Sub Saharan Africa has demonstrated the point that climate change has impacts everywhere, but lack of development has seriously impeded its ability to adapt to this.
•  Australia on the other hand demonstrates that although perhaps facing one of the toughest conditions to freshwater scarcity- drought( which is getting worse by climate change) it has  managed to overcome these obstacles by using substantial funds. 
• Brazil just goes to demonstrate how easily it is to fall into conditions of water stress despite having the most freshwater.
• Seychelles goes to demonstrate islands should not be forgotten. Although we might soon be submerged in water does not mean we don't need more.    

However all these places as with every place on Earth are influenced by climate change as well as human factors despite being to differing degrees. Hence it is no wonder it is hard to assess what plays a bigger influence. Nevertheless my verdict was still reach and that was humans has the over riding factor in determining freshwater scarcity. Although this sounds depressing it means we are even more prepared first hand to defeat freshwater scarcity- well not quite defeat it but reduce it! I know we can also do this with climate change but I feel this makes it slightly more personal. 
If we all read my lovely blog on suggestions how to do so I believe we can reduce our water footprint sufficiently to make the future world a less thirsty place. 
Looking at projections on  future on freshwater scarcity it already seems like some of the solutions will make some difference i.e, technical improvements in industrialising countries as well as in the agriculture sector. Despite this the situation is not projected to be getting better in the future apart from slight improvements, which indicate we really must be taking the whole situation a lot more seriously!
 Oh gosh I feel I am getting too big for my boots preaching here. So I'll leave now and start doing those other courseworks I've been putting off. 

Thank you to everyone who has commented on my blog, I hope my replies have been useful in some way....
and and and I really hope you have learnt as much a I have, I know my mum has!
Take care everyone. Will miss you. 

increasing water stress: humans or climate change?

From my four case studies I have used and from various reading around I think my answer would be:  

This obviously is not the case everywhere and in some regions climate change may be the overriding influence on water stress but generally the increase in consumption has been the major factor responsible for water stress.

For future global stress however there has been solid investigations into this! 

As I discussed last week depending on the scenario and climate model about two -thirds to three -quarters of future tiver basin areas will have increasing water stress up to the 2050s (relative to current conditions).

Carrying on from Alcamo et al , 2007 global water model ( discussed in last blog) it is found that the principle cause of increasing water stress is growing water withdrawals,( for nearly 90% of river basin area) whereas the principle cause over a much smaller area ( about 10%) is decreasing water availability due to climate change. This is a conclusion reached by most big scholars in the world on water such as Vorosmarty el al 2000 and Oki et al,2003 that future water stress up to 2050 will be more affected by changes in water demand than by climate change. However the factor most responsible for this differs between the scholars. 

For example Alcamo et al, concluded that the increase in the growth of domestic use stimulate by income growth was the most influential factor- check out map below. This is projected to be taking place most fundamentally in developing regions hence it is believed that water stress will be increasing over most developing regions.  

                                              dominant sector of increasing water withdrawals

Whereas Oki et al (2003) estimated that the impact of economic and technological development on increasing water stress up to 2050 was smaller than the effect of population growth. 

So thats that, humans influence is the answer, both now and near future projections on water stress. However will this still be the case in a hundred or thousand of years??  Well just wait for my blog then ....

decreasing water stress in the future?

Whilst I have been reading millions upon millions of articles on water scarcity, one statement has always come up : around 2/3 of the earths population could face water stress of freshwater by the mid century.

But what about this other 1/3 I have wondered to myself? 

Well luckily I have found out. Depending on the scenario and climate model used Alcamo et al , 2007 between 19.7% and 29% of total river basin area has decreasing stress and the remaining area has small changes ( less than 5% increase or decrease). 

What is the cause of this decreasing water stress: climate change or human factors? 

Well the primary factor for most of the area (approximately 50-80%) is the higher annual precipitation related to climate change. Whereas the main factor over a smaller area (about 20–45%) is decreasing withdrawals. The decrease or stabilisation in withdrawals are projected  to be most apparent and extensive at industrialised regions. This is because it is believed that there will be a saturation of per capita water use, stabilising population and continued technological improvements..... so we were right last week about industrialised countries bringing us hope!! As for the major cause go this decrease over most of this area (59.7%- 88%, depending on the scenario) is the agriculture sector. The two most influential factors determine the decrease in agricultural withdrawals are increasing precipitation ( which reduces the demand for irrigation over the growing season) and improving efficiency of irrigation use. 

So conclusion today  is that climate change rather than humans is  the most influential factor for projected REDUCTION in water stress.

So to be tackled in the next blog, the important and finale question: what is the factor most responsible for the INCREASE in water stress??? 

Will it be climate change as in the case of today, or humans… to be revealed next time at www.watersecurityhc.blogspot.co.uk