country with largest freshwater supply

The previous two regions I've looked at (Sub Saharan Africa and Australia) are both naturally dry regions that are experiencing water scarcity. So I thought it would be interesting for this post to look at a region in the world that is the complete opposite and, in fact, has the largest supply of freshwater in the world... take a guess?? 

Yes Brazil you guessed right. Brazil has less than 3% of the worlds populations and 12% of the worlds freshwater resources (Watts, 2014).  Nevertheless at the moment the central , south eastern region of Brazil and most dramatically in its largest and most economically important city Sau Paulo  is suffering a water crisis, which is having  devastating effects on agriculture, energy and domestic water supplies. It is very perplexing to me that the region in the world with the most freshwater reserves is still vulnerable to water scarcity so lets take a look at why this is: 

So what I have found out is the underlying factor responsible for the water crisis is the worst  drought Brazil has experienced in the last 80 years (Davies, November 2014).The drought began last austral summer ( December to February), when Sao Paulo state received about one third to half of its usual amount of rain during what should have been its wettest month. In the seven months since, rainfall has been about 40 % of normal (Plumer , October 2014). Some Brazilian scientists say the current drought is a result of a combination of global warming and deforestation. 

Despite Brazil being recently congratulated on its efforts to reduce deforestation in the past two years  deforestation all over Brazil has reached alarming proportions: 22 percent of the Amazon rainforest (an area larger than Portugal, Italy and Germany combined), 47 percent of the Cerrado in central Brazil, and 91.5 percent of the Atlantic forest that used to cover the entire length of the coastal area has now been wiped out.

                                                        forest clearance in the Amazon

The combination of global warming and deforestation, they say, is reducing the role of the Amazon rainforest as a giant “water pump,” releasing billions of litres of humidity from the trees into the air in the form of vapour which then circulate west and south, falling as rain to irrigate Brazil’s central and southern regions. In January and February of this year, when rain is usually abundant in central and southern Brazil, the flying rivers ( which is the term for the vapour clouds from the Amazon) failed to flow south, according to data from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) (Maddocks et al, November 2014). 

                                                             Flying rivers animation

However in an article I read recently, Marshall ( the writer) argues that the extreme drought in Sau Paulo is not the result of deforestation. He contests this for two reasons. Firstly he argues that the deforestation is insufficiently large to account for the drought levels. Although according to Nobre - Brazils top climate scientist -the role of the Amazon rainforest in producing rain has been underestimated (Rocha , September 2014 ). In a single day, the Amazon region evaporates 20 billion tonnes of vapour − more than the 17 million tonnes of water that the Amazon River discharges each day into the Atlantic. 

Secondly Marshall argues that there is evidence which points to a natural southerly shift in the current year in the easterly winds coming ashore in Brazil from near the Amazon delta to the much drier coast of Bahia (Marshall , 2014).

However time for something which is not contestable and that is the current drought should not have brought such havoc to regions of Brazil seeing the very important fact that Brazil holds the largest freshwater reserves in the world. This could only be a fault of humans, boom boom boom. Its hindered ability to adapt was a result  of a series of interconnected water management failures across the metropolitan areas. 

As climate scientist Marcos Heil Costa told Nasa, '"It is now clear that our policies on management of water resources are unsustainable, no city in southeast Brazil seems prepared to handle a drought like this one. It is a mix of a lack of preparation for low levels of rain and a lack of environmental education in the population. Most people continue to use water as if we were in a normal year"(Plumer , October 2014). 

But I think I may have forgotten. what is my verdict : climate change or human influence. Well I definitely think climate change had a substantial part to do with the drought( as this drought would be considered extreme weather: a major feature of climate change). However to what extent deforestation also had an influence( which would then shift this to human influence in the case of my blog)  is contestable at the moment. Therefore I will conclude with this: Climate change ( and perhaps deforestation) was the catalyst in the way that it caused the drought however it was the human influence that was the predominant factor in making this a water issue, as those involved were ill equipped to handle such an event. 

driest inhabited continent.

I thought a good follow on from my previous blog would be to look at the driest inhabited continent on Earth as opposed to the region experiencing the most widespread water scarcity... take a guess!!

yes you guessed right.. Australia! There is a presumption, not by everyone of course but some people that developed countries do not experience water scarcity as such. 

Australia is proof that yes developed countries do experience water shortages, but it is perhaps their greater ability to deal with the issue that keeps the issue more under wraps in contrast to developing regions like Africa for example. Nevertheless water availability is a major issue in Australia, particularly as rainfall varies a lot seasonally, yearly and across the continent (Chhartisgarh, 2008).

The more populated temperate south of Australia is where there are the worst water scarcity problems,  whereas in the tropical north where few people live there is a relative abundance of water(Charters and William , 2006)- as we can see distribution is a reoccuring topic!

The larger population in the urban areas together with the heavy industry and water intensive agro business (Murray Darling Basin - 75% of irrigated agriculture- which has caused major water depletion here) in the south is causing irreversible damage to the frail ecosystems and contributing to this  chronic water shortages(sustainability, 2014). However it is the prevailing drought conditions  conditioned by global warming that are mostly determining this water usage as unsustainable. For the past 9 years Australia has been experiencing perhaps the worst drought of their history ( and they have had no shortages of these).

The finding published in the journal Nature, say that increases in greenhouse gases and ozone( Australia is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases per capita) in the Earth's atmosphere are responsible for suppressing rainfall in Australia (Zeng and Delworth, 2014). In addition climate change is expressing itself both magnitude and variability on the highly variable cyclic pattern of rainfall (William and Charters, 2006) it is no wonder it is expressing its worst drought. 

Climate change projections show a tendency for  decrease in winter -spring rainfall ( June - November) over the southern half of the continent and a tendency for increased summer autumn rainfall ( December - May)  in northern Australia (William and charter, 2006), which means the current situation in southern Australia is going to get even worse. 

In response to this the western Australian minister for water and forestry Mia Davies said, 

"In a drying climate we need to become less reliant on rainfall, which is why we go down the path of desalination, around waste water treatment and reuse and re- injection into our aquifers,"(Mercer, 2014). These both are already being utilised in Australia.

                             

 However the issue here is that these energy intensive ways of getting water are going to contribute to the issue of global warming even more so which in turn will create more water problems for Australia. Therefore in addition to these energy intensive ways Australia has put an increase of emphasis in water conservation and various regimes restricting the use of water(William and Charters, 2006). 

In conclusion Australia is suffering from a different water scarcity  problem to Sub Saharan African given the development difference. While Sub Saharan Africa is mainly suffering from economic scarcity the prevailing issue in Australia is physical scarcity and the dominant reason being climate change exarcebating the drought. However human transformations (especially through river regulation and irrigation) have intensified the extent of the drought. How successfully Australia responds to these current water scarcity issues will offer an important road map for others around the world. 

water scarcity in Sub Saharan Africa

Despite the progress of some countries, Sub Saharan Africa as a whole still lags behind most regions of the world when it comes to water access, management and supply. For those of you who don't know where Sub Saharan Africa is, I have so kindly provided a image of where it is. So it is basically the area that lies below the Saharan Desert. 

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), more than 40% of all people without access to safe drinking water live there, with some 300,000 people deprived of a clean water source (UNDESA, 2014). 

Despite Africa’s rainy equatorial zone, long rivers, great lakes and vast shores, water is unevenly distributed across the region. About 75% of sub-Saharan Africa’s water resources are concentrated in eight major river basins. More worryingly, climate change  have considerably reduced fresh water quantity here over the past 20 years. Even though it is the continent least responsible for climate change it is particularly vulnerable for its effects. 

The Intergovernmental Panel of climate change reports that climate change in Africa has manifested itself in more intense and longer droughts in the subtropics and tropics, while arid or semi-arid areas in northern, western, eastern, and parts of southern Africa are becoming drier and more susceptible to variability of precipitation and storms (DFID, 2009). As a result most countries in the region are under severe water stress.

BUT BUT BUT there is hope!  Although changes in climate happening 5000-5500 years ago meant aquifers were last adequately filled 5000 years ago there has recently there has been a discovery! In 2012 researchers from the British geological survey and University college London ( that's my uni !! ) for the first time ever managed  to map in detail the amount and potential yield of water  in aquifers and found that countries currently designated as  'water scarce’ have substantial groundwater reserves!!! hurrayyy 

But ( sad but this time) even though there has been found to be  sufficient groundwater to support many low yielding water supplies for drinking and community irrigation the big concern is over exploitation (McGrath, 2012) hence leading us onto our human factors. 

Human factorssss
Water exploitation is already a big issue in Sub Saharan. But its the incentives for overuse which are among the most damaging especially concerning groundwater extraction. For ground water, once the pump is installed, the policy of many countries is to only constrain removal based on the cost of electricity, and in many cases subsidise electricity costs for agricultural uses, which damages incentives to conserve such resources. Additionally, many countries within Africa set the cost of water well below cost-recovery levels, thus discouraging efficient usage and threatening sustainability (Jaglin , 2002). 

                                                                                        Land grabbing in the future has been pointed out by experts to become another major cause of  water shortage over the next coming years. These  property deals between sub-Saharan African countries and foreign companies often entail selling rights to inland water resources. As property acquired in such a manner is mostly used for extensive, water-demanding agricultural activities (that often entail deforestation), ‘land grabbing’ further jeopardises water supplies and, in countries like Ethiopia or Sudan, worsens the effects of already endemic water scarcity (Grain, 2012).

Water in Sub Saharan Africa  is not only scarce due to exploitation, bad management,  wastage and climate change but it is also of exceptionally poor quality. Due to pollution as well as unreliable supply and sanitation infrastructure, only a small percentage of what little water is available can be used for human consumption. Almost half of all Africans suffer from water-borne diseases, with cholera and infant diarrhoea the most frequently occurring sicknesses.

The water stress caused by inadequate sanitation tends to reach critical levels in regions with higher population densities. The rapid urbanisation process ( at a rate of 5% - highest in the world) currently underway in sub-Saharan Africa is therefore expected to worsen the situation. Currently 1 billion people live in urban areas in sub-Saharan Africa and, according to the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), that figure is expected to rise by 50% by 2030 (Lewis, 2014).

So to sum up water scarcity in Sub Saharan Africa has clearly suffered the effects of both climate change as well as human factors.  However in my opinion the biggest cause of this water scarcity is due to human factors, and more specifically poverty. The fact that the majority of Sub Saharan Africa suffers from economic scarcity back up this point. This poverty constrains many cities in this region from providing clean water and sanitation services and preventing the further deterioration of water quality even when opportunities- such as the newly founded groundwater reserves -exist to address these water issues.However ironically although this widespread poverty and low levels of development are impeding sub saharans Africa ability to cope with climate change and hence making it more water stressed, in the future it is is this economic development that is going to exarcerbate its water issue further! However as opposed to the current issue being mostly economic scarcity as a result of the inability to supply the water, future water stress here will  mostly be physical water stress  of not being able to meet increase in demand. 

some water scarcity statistics

OK so what have we established so far?? ok well what I hope to have established is that there is enough  freshwater on the planet for 7 billion people but its is just the distribution which is uneven added with the fact that too much of it is wasted, polluted and unsustainably managed. So freshwater scarcity is both a factor of climate change and human influence. Now for some statistical facts I'v picked up along the way so you get the feel that this is an urgent relevant topic:

• Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the last century

• although there is no global water scarcity as such, an increasing number of regions are chronically short of water.

• Water scarcity already affects every continent.

• Around 780 million people in 43 countries lack access to clean water that is more than 2 .5 times the population of the US.

• Another 1.6 billion people, or almost one quarter of the world's population, face economic water shortage (where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers and aquifers).UN, 2007  

• By 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity( <500 cubic meters per person er year) , and two-thirds of the world's population could be living under water stressed conditions ( < 1700 cubic meters per person per year) .

• With the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world's population will be living in areas of high water stress by 2030

• In addition, water scarcity in some arid and semi-arid places will displace between 24 million and 700 million people.UNDP, 2006

Now the next blog will be focused on the part of the world which has the largest number of water stressed countries of any region. Have a guess???

   SUB SAHARAN AFRICA! 

How human activities affect freshwater scarcity

Its time for the non climatic factors affecting freshwater scarcity! There are so many human factors that affect freshwater resources. Water resources both in quantity and quality are affected by : land use change, the construction and management of reservoirs, pollutant emissions, waste water treatment, population, lifestyle, food consumption, economic policy, societies views of the value of water etc (IPPC, no date).  However I'm only going to mention three human factor which I think are the most important in influencing freshwater resources. Not only because they are the largest factors causing a change in freshwater resources but they link into all the other human factors affecting freshwater resources. 

Firstly the increasingly talked about growing  human population:

The Falkenmark indicator is the most widely used measure of water scarcities because its meanings are intuitive and it is very easy to understand as you will see below. I should have probably mentioned this water stress index from the first blog but better late than never! This stress indicator is a demonstrator that population growth will reduce the amount of available  water per person to troublesome levels: 

 However it is important to note that previous projections of human population are higher than what has been now estimated due to a decline in fertility from 2.5 to 2 resulting in a population of  9 billion by 2050. So this would mean that the future impact on freshwater is not as bad as previously thought Vorosmarty, 2000. However this may have been the case but other factors have come into play since then, which leads us onto our second factor…... higher consumption!

Globally most people are getting richer and more developed (Kenny, 2013). What do we do when we get more developed?? we consume more.. duhh just look at developed countries footprint in comparison to developing countries!  

Now seeing as everything practically everything involves using water our water use increases rapidly when we become more developed. However the major issue here is not for domestic purposes which might seem the most blatant... oooh no it is for agriculture purposes! It takes on average it takes 70 times more water to grow food  than people use directly for domestic purposes. So taking this into consideration reduced freshwater is going to have grave circumstances on food security more than anything- not a nice thought for my tummy.  

                                                         

                                                          global water scarcity 

Moving on... this increase in population together with increase in affluence creates increases in consumption and production leading us onto our third factor ….. pollution. I personally think pollution is going to be one of the most damaging factors to water scarcity because it is the only variable responsible for actually reducing the amount of freshwater globally as it creates the water to become de facto unusable. China and India are currently the major culprits in the pollution of water( no surprise since they are the bosses in production with limited water treatment at the moment) nevertheless there is projected to be an increase in organic micro pollutant everywhereGoel , 2006.This is partly a fault of climate change as I mentioned in a comment to Shafique in my last blog, because it will increase non point pollution into water resources as a result of increase runoff.  

                                            I hope this doesn't end up being the case!

So up to now I have just cleared how climatic and non climatic factors affect freshwater scarcity, so next to come :

 

how does climate change affect freshwater security?

In order for us to understand the problem of water stress it is necessary to understand the distribution of water on the planet. I already discussed this a little in my previous blog, but just a little more detailed recap provided here by the picture:

Now in this blog I will be assessing the ways in which climate change affect this very small amount of consumable freshwater... heavy stuff!

First what is climate change?? I know I might be stating the obvious but better safe than sorry. 

 When talking about the current climate change occurring in our era we tend to be referring to global warming. This global warming which has been spotted to be happening rapidly after 1950  till today has been presumed by scientists who are 90% sure that this been caused by increasing greenhouse gases created by human activities( although some may contest this) (I.P.O.C, 2007).

Now the big point to take away is that climate change affects the distribution of water on the planet!! It is THIS that affects water stress. Lets now go into the major ways it will do this... 
 One of the most pronounced effects of climate change has been melting of masses of ice. When polar ice melts it melts into the sea which goes hand in hand with seal level rise. The implications of this is that the beautiful freshwater is turned into salty water which we can no longer consume, unless that is if we want to use some expensive desalination systems on it, but that is not really a solution for many of us round the world since we aren't all arabs ( the total use of desalinated water in the near East is estimated to be 3.93km3/year with Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirate and Kuwait use accounting for 77% of the region). 

Rising sea levels caused by this melting of our glaciers also tampers with the freshwater in our groundwater and estuaries by causing salt water intrusion and hence salinisation(Warner and Simons, 2009).
In the case on inland glaciers when they melt they will contribute to freshwater in rivers and lakes, but this will be a short term relief as when these glaciers have been depleted they can no longer be restored!

Another effect of  global warming, is to increase the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold. For every  0.6 Celsius rise in temperature (1 Fahrenheit) the the water holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by 4%  and there is projected to be a 0.2 Celsius increase per decade for the next two decades(IPPC, 2007). So because the air can hold more water vapour this leads to heavier and more rainfall when the carrying capacity is exceeded or the atmosphere cools. If you need a visualisation for this just look at tropical rainfalls .. they are very dramatic, unlike small showers in England.
This might sound confusing because more rainfall surely must mean more freshwater. However  although yes rainfall means more freshwater,  heavier rainfall also means more rapid movement of the water back to the oceans- hence reducing our ability to store and use it.

In a warmer climate more precipitation will occur as rain rather than snow. This is bad for freshwater security for two reasons. Firstly evaporation which is more dramatic with the increase in temperatures has a larger impact on water rather than snow therefore more drought will be common. Secondly when snow and ice collect on mountains, water is released slowly into the soil  and into groundwater as opposed to when rain falls. Therefore crucial groundwater will not be replenished. This is extremely important as around 50 % of global domestic water supply is from groundwater and humans are quickly using most of the available groundwater storage already( IPCC chapter 3).

However, we must bear in mind that climate change is not going to reduce the amount of precipitation that is falling on our earth, because this will be the same. BUT what it will do is intensify the water cycle.

                                                            intensified water cycle

In other words, the frequency of dramatic weather events will increase. So flooding will become more common in some areas and droughts more severe in others. These effects are already being seen though in a lot of places. However to see examples of this you will just have to wait for my later blogs to come.. woohooo.

One last point people may not actually consider is that climate change will not only affect supply of water but demand too. This is because as the Earths temperatures rise the amount of water required for animals and humans and plants to strive increases, hence putting more pressure on water resources.

Coming up next…. the ways in which human activities affect freshwater security!!!

introduction to my first ever blog

Hey everyone!!
This is my first time writing a blog and I am so awful at computers, it has just taken me 2 hours to figure how to log back onto my google account so I'v just ended up restarting everything.
Anyways a little about me.. I am from the Seychelles, if no one knows where that is, its near Madagascar.. yes like the movie. If you need image aid to help I have provided such:

 I am studying Geography at UCL and I am currently in my third year.
Well first of all why this topic?.. well being from the Seychelles a small tropical island in the the middle of the Indian Ocean I am constantly surrounded by vast amounts of water wherever I look. However, for as long as I can remember for several weeks a year the people of Seychelles have been cut off from the water supply due to ' water shortages'. Now this has always puzzled me? How can somewhere surrounded by oceans suffer from water shortage? It seems pretty bizarre.
Well in time I began to realise, yes we have plenty of water as the oceans cover more than 70% of the Earths surface, but 98% of the Earth's water is in the oceans and only 2% is freshwater!
 So that explains it: we have limited freshwater not water, and moreover only 0.5% of this freshwater is actually surface water readily available to us.
Now freshwater is becoming even more scarce as time goes on. There are two dramatic things occurring in the world at the moment. Greater human influence on our planet and climate change.
 Both contribute to this decreasing freshwater security but to what extent?
Now over the course of this blog which I will be adding to every so often in the next three months, I have established a few questions I will aim to target, although these might extend .. beware. Alright so these are them so you get a feel of the direction this blog will be going in:

• How do human activities and climate change affect water scarcity?

• Regions in the world suffering from lack of freshwater and why?

• What positive steps can be taken to ensure water security?

• And finally which has the greater influence on water scarcity: human activities or climate change?

Oh and If you are wondering what the hell is water scarcity, it is simply the lack of sufficient available water resources to meet the demands of water usage within a region.

 

Please comment and allow me to fish for more ideas

Signing off now but not for long
Nicole